منابع مشابه
EPiC: Earthquake Prediction in California
Earthquake prediction has long been the holy grail for seismologists around the world. The various factors affecting earthquakes are far from being understood, and there exist no known correlations between largescale earthquake activity and periodic geological events. Nonetheless, we hope that machine learning will give us greater insight into the patterns underlying earthquake activity, even i...
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Japan's National Project for Earthquake Prediction has been conducted since 1965 without success. An earthquake prediction should be a short-term prediction based on observable physical phenomena or precursors. The main reason of no success is the failure to capture precursors. Most of the financial resources and manpower of the National Project have been devoted to strengthening the seismograp...
متن کاملRethinking Earthquake Prediction
We re-examine and summarize what is now possible in predicting earthquakes, what might be accomplished (and hence might be possible in the next few decades) and what types of predictions appear to be inherently impossible based on our understanding of earthquakes as complex phenomena. We take predictions to involve a variety of time scales from seconds to a few decades. Earthquake warnings and ...
متن کاملPrediction Probabilities From Foreshocks
When any earthquake occurs, the possibility that it might be a foreshock increases the probability that a larger earthquake will occur nearby within the next few days. Clearly, the probability of a very large earthquake ought to be higher if the candidate foreshock were on or near a fault capable of producing that very large mainshock, especially if the fault is towards the end of its seismic c...
متن کاملAn Empirical Model for Earthquake Probabilities in the San
The moment magnitude M 7.8 earthquake in 1906 profoundly changed the rate of seismic activity over much of northern California. The low rate of seismic activity in the San Francisco Bay region (SFBR) since 1906, relative to that of the preceding 55 yr, is often explained as a stress-shadow effect of the 1906 earthquake. However, existing elastic and visco-elastic models of stress change fail to...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Zisin (Journal of the Seismological Society of Japan. 2nd ser.)
سال: 1977
ISSN: 0037-1114,1883-9029,2186-599X
DOI: 10.4294/zisin1948.30.2_179